Likewise, gener-, four phases, which are similar to the in-, Intelligence Installations in Norway: Their Number, Loca-, ng beliefs of the institution. Jervis states that the cause of many intelligence failures can, be traced back to an inability and failure to rethink beliefs and perceptions related to, incoming information (2011, 169–70). Goffman’s defi-, nition of institution differs, in part, from Ostrom’s, but in this case the boundaries. Isolation is the, most problematic criterion to fulfil in the social sciences. The results, obtained from the case study with a high ecological validity, suggest that the prototype tool provided valuable insights by bringing forth information from a more diverse set of sources, specifically from private citizens that would not have been easily discovered otherwise. enced and restricted by their social setting (i.e., institutions). analysis, and interpretation of available information concerning foreign nations, hostile or potentially hostile forces or elements, or areas of actual or potential op-, erations. “A New Definition of Intelligence.” Intelligence and Na-. Ostrom adapted this model, asserting that it is significantly affected by external. Analysts are also highly dependent on technical. In addi-, tion, Professor Juha-Matti Lehtonen should be properly thanked for allowing me to, pursue my dissertation work in my own way and pace as well as for helping me with. This includes a framework for empirical validation of the model and evaluation of hypermedia design so that both theory and design can be refined iteratively. Today several nations utilize risk-based approaches in military planning. The intelligence cycle describes how this knowledge is produced. A pertinent question to ask, then, is whether theories are, used in intelligence analyses. ‘Intelligence Analysis - Once, Again’. Therefore, it is of great importance in maintaining the linkage between. H. J., Kristian C. Gustafson, and Ian. There are two differing perspectives: one that explains social phenomena, in terms of individuals and the other that explains social phenomena through indi-, viduals and the relations between individuals (Hodgson 2007, 218). Therefore, the central distinction is not between multi or mixed but rather regarding the meth-, odology. http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/02/opinion/02brooks.html. It identifies the most general set of variables as well as the meta-theoretical, language facilitating communication between scholars and practitioners. However, they are best understood as two sides, of the same coin which complement each other. First an understanding of the character of mental models and how they operate is. The idea, that individuals advising the chief executives of nuclear-armed states might, become bogged down or divided in their assessments over the relative merits, of Marxism, functionalism, Lacanian psychoanalysis, or whose viewpoint was, Although Davies probably did not mean to imply that an analyst starts with a com-, pletely blank page, his example is thought-provoking and it forces us to ask where, and at what level theories are needed. For the two groups with an anchor, there is a distinct increase in the num-, ber of estimates that are above and close to the anchor. ‘The Need for an Intelligence Literature’. The aim of the case study was to examine and identify the mechanisms of, institutional influence on intelligence assessments. Validation is an estimation of the credibility of collected data. Possible shared beliefs regarding insur-, gency in Afghanistan are less threatening than, for example, shared beliefs regarding. Intelligence is vital for the outcome of battles. Why is this clarification needed? The metatheoretical language of the IAD is a promising avenue for explaining and describing the institutional influence on intelligence assessments. Several different, forms of intelligence can be seen, some which overlap business intelligence, strategic, intelligence, national/national security intelligence, law enforcement/police intelli-, gence, military intelligence, and defense intelligence. sions, but there are also challenges. The chapter is divided into two subsections with, each focusing on how the articles contributed to addressing the main research, Incidents provide key data for various reports and analyses produced by the military, intelligence community. Three different collecting methods were used: interviews, questionnaires, and document studies. All four holons are deeply nested within each oth-, er. In this case, a knowledge-producing institution, is produces knowledge conducted by several individual entities in a sequential pro-, Some questions can be formulated regarding the precision and completeness of the, case. This influences the possibility of, generalizing the results beyond the specific case in question. Last but not the least, I would like to thank my family: my father who always has, been my role model, my mother for always being there, my sister for her help, throughout my school-age years and assistance in addressing my issues with dyslex-, ia, my wife Maria who has always supported, my sons Teodor and Samuel who by their mere existence have helped me realize the, total insignificance of this book in comparison to much more important things such. At the core, intelligence is considered to be some type of product or activity with, the purpose of delivering decision support to civilian leaders or military command-, ers. New York: Cambridge University Press. This is not surprising, as the definition of intelligence is unclear, (Mangio and Wilkinson 2008). However, international operations (e.g., in Afghanistan, Kosovo, Liberia, and, Libya) force military intelligence institutions to work transnationally and thereby, increase the cultural exchange. The answer is delivered to the, person who asked the question in the first place. aggravated the risk for cognitive bias, such as anchoring and cognitive bias. Article V. However, only the counterfactuals for one single rule-in-use are provided, and but the interaction of this rule with other rules or beliefs from that same institu-, tion is not included. Understanding how military intelligence institutions function and the influence of, the analysis they produce is central in any attempt to understand intelligence as-, sessments. The risk of “conceptual stretching”, which is common in statistical studies (i.e.. combining cases which do not belong to the same class to increase the sample size), does not exist in case studies (George and Bennett 2005, 19). ‘Intelligence Analysis-Turning a Craft Into a Profession’. One problem area is in, regard to interviewing. George and Bennett broadened the term “generalization” and demonstrated that a, case study can be generalized to “neighboring cases” and under some circumstances, even to all cases of a phenomenon. Only inside the CIA would such a standard be ac-. In a larger sense, it is the direct interpretation of this stimuli. Bounded rationality was developed as a reaction to traditional rational choice theory. Particularly the rules-in-use that dictate that an analyst takes his or hers starting point from recently conducted assessments of the specific area or threat. Both the, shared belief system and the theories-in-use guide the analyst in searching for and, processing new information and knowledge. , edited by Robert Dover, Michael S. Goodman, and Claudia Hil-, Professing Feminism: Cautionary Tales from, Institutional Theory in Political Science 3rd Edition: The New Institu-. doi:10.1080/00213624.2006.11506879. This aim is achieved by providing an assessment of data from a range of sources, directed towards the commanders' mission requirements or responding to questions as part of operational or campaign planning. The mechanism is seen as the presumed causal pathways between, the independent variable (institution) and dependent variable (assessments). Although the number appears to be large, it is on average, only eight publications per year, the majority of which are historical case descrip-, tions. Information including names and capacities, of collecting units (especially regarding IMINT and SIGINT) were deleted. One of the dividing lines regards the notion of uncertainty, in particular, the differ-, ences in military intelligence between Jomini and Clausewitz. 1997. 0000000960 00000 n If the different parts are seen as holons, this also means that it is possible to analyti-, cally dissect them separately and thereafter build our understanding of them as a, whole. They are also hierarchical in their nature. One of the strengths of, case studies in general is the conceptual validity, which is a part of the internal valid-. researchers reveal the location of several signal intelligence positions in Norway, which ended with both researchers being convicted and given suspended prison, One of the main ethical guidelines in social. A central, part of the outcome, which is illustrated in the framework, is how the incoming, stimuli is interpreted. The literature regarding intelligence has grown steadily over the last three decades. between theories and beliefs is that when a belief takes the form of a theory-in-use, it affects the mental model directly rather than merely providing the model with, The theoretical foundation of this thesis can be summarized in the following three, foreknowledge of the world around us to military commanders at all levels or, understood in combination with an individual’s social relations with other, individuals. Download Perspectives On Military Intelligence From The First World War To Mali PDF/ePub or read online books in Mobi eBooks. The first class consisted 4 Nisei instructors and 60 students—58 Nisei and 2 Caucasians. This thesis has contributed to this claim by illustrating how an institu-, tion influences the mental model, and thus, it has advanced our understanding of, The largest contribution is, however, not the mechanisms but rather the framework, in the same spirit as Ostrom’s framework that provides a common language for. theory is a more explicit version of what, Military intelligence is a product with the aim of delivering knowledge or. ‘Making the Intelligence “Cycle” Work’. writing. decade (Bar-Joseph and McDermott, Hastedst 1996; Davies 2004; Turner 2004). How Can We Know? The risk here is becoming, too broad or too narrow. Time constraints entail that we need to understand, the intelligence process as a system, i.e., nested holons. 2008. ‘Rethinking Military Intelligence Failure – Putting the Wheels. seen as highly regulated in other areas such as, legalities or access to information. Den tillgängliga, underrättelselitteraturen har ökat stadigt under de senaste tre decennierna. Basically, the dividing lines of intelligence analysis are the same that divide scholars, of philosophy of science. Nevertheless, it is the causality in the, mechanisms and the mechanisms’ link to the current theories on intelligence analy-, sis that is of most interest here. Some of the respondents had a clear, message they wanted to deliver. There is always a risk that an adverse counterintelligence organization could use the. given time. that the combined list of names of the staff members be classified. use of quantitative methods were identified as having a negative effect on the utility. 2014. Bimfort wrote almost 60 years ago that each expert, tends to define intelligence based on his or her area of expertise (1958, 75). In Arti-, cle III, the workflow was at the center as much of the problem was connected to, the ability to act on time- sensitive information. ligence studies. In the military context, the collection phase is directly, connected to the intelligence-requirement management process. QAnon is military intelligence and close to Trump, and the intelligence we’ve getting, that we’ve explained on Infowars, really is a lot of the inside script. Quantitative or more specific, statistical methods and their utility are hard to question if we look at their usage in, Instead of strictly looking at the utility, it can be useful to ask what within the insti-, tution affects the utility. 8 (1): 3–58. Although not using those concepts, the article also discussed the interactive, relationship that exists between the intelligence holon and the decision holon. Other strategies and norms indicate that the same theoretical link exists for, how assessments are conducted and subsequently, an enhanced risk for cognitive, biases. Therefore, the overarching research question for this thesis is: How do military intelligence institutions influence intelligence analysis? Rethinking threat: intelligence analysis, intentions, ca-, pabilities, and the challenge of non-state actors. The results show that officers have an aversion to lower a previ-, ously given threat assessment. This notion was the unchallenged assumption, that Egypt would never attack as long as they lacked a long-range air-strike capabil-, ity to attack the Israeli airfields. Whether or not this is possible depends on both, representative it is for that specific class (George and Bennett 2005, 110). Därför handlar det speciellt om militär intelligens, som handlar om att, förstå det institutionella inflytandet på intelligensbedömningar. ‘Creating the Interviewer: Identity Work in the Manage-. Thus, a significant question is how many of these are representative to, other countries’ military intelligence institutions. , edited by Roger Z. George and James B. Bruce, 2 edition. This bias creates the distinct increase that is close to and, above the anchor value. The supporting case study also applied a deductive approach although it is primarily, conceptual in its design and results. 1995. Likewise, as an expert there is a need, to learn from failures and to do this there is a need to know when failures occur and, actively reflect over them. Specifically, our position rests on the following three propositions: (1) the progressive integration and organization of sensory and motor signals constitutes the foundations of the minimal self, a process which we have linked to contemporary, computational models of brain function and named “embodied mentalization”; (2) interactions with other people are motivated and constrained by the same principles that govern the “mentalization” of sensorimotor signals in the individual – and hence the mentalization of one’s body can include signals from other bodies in physical proximity and interaction, especially in interaction with particular bodies. used to interpret that measurement. To cope with this, the human. The Art of War. However, this thesis uses the concept, of holons instead of systems in being true to Ostrom’s terms. anchor compared to the corresponding ranges for the group without an anchor. Potter, Jonathan, and Alexa Hepburn. The methodology of this thesis can, therefore be described as a mix-method approach, regarding both the methods used, and the methodological approaches. However, in the social, sciences we are usually directed to natural experiments where we cannot control the, variables or acquire an adequate sample that is not too small. 2015. form of theories-in-use when the institution’s members can articulate the theory. The structured data (information) is then put into a context, and used to answer the given intelligence question, which is then called analysis. Revised edition. reveal how the individuals conducted intelligence analysis and their views of them. There is also a, need to understand the mechanism(s) between the dependent and independent vari-. The fact that war is a too complex environment is linked to the epistemological, view and also the world view. Taylor & Francis. ment regarding the core phenomena and a lack of consensus about the concepts. Louisiana Law Review Volume 64 | Number 4 Normalization of National Security Law: The ‘institution’ captures these three aspects of influence. of central concepts. Article II of this thesis identified and discussed some challenges when applying risk-, based approaches to military activities. Military Intelligence lieutenants most commonly serve as intelligence officers at echelons corps and below. Both these factors, In some ways, I may share some of the existi, that I may have had problems, especially when conducting the interviews, both to, see and detect shared beliefs as they were taken for granted by both others and my-, self. For example, in con-, trast to defense or law intelligence, military intelligence has the responsibility to de-, liver information and intelligence (even borderline intelligence, such as weather, forecasting and geographical information) regarding all actors who are not in their, It can be questioned if the specific types of intelligence assessments (e.g., threat as-, sessments) can be seen as typical or representative of intelligence activity. Worldviews are heu-, ristic assumptions that are connected to the epistemic and ontological foundations, of other beliefs (Koltko-Rivera 2004). Active rules-in-use within the institution may directly, control access to specific stimuli, or the rules-in-use may result in a cognitive bias, that influences the view of specific stimuli. …analysts typically form a picture first and then select the pieces to fit. mind restricts itself; the human mind is bound by cognitive limits. and What type of class of event is it? ity. doi:10.1126/science.185. In all texts, a sequential approach was used. “Wanted: A Definition of Intelligence.”, ———. Figure 3: (Prunckun 2010, 5; Evans 2009, 41), Two examples are illustrated in Figure 3. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. It can be questioned. Georgetown University, Bruce, James B, and Roger Z. George. This separation provides some clarity regarding what the analyst is conducting. This editorial fact tells us much about the field of intelligence. Drawing upon this thesis, three potential areas for future research could include: institutional analysis, threat assessments, and intelligence analysis. But what kind of generalizations may be made? ‘Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuris-. the term. Accessed, April 23. http://www.scribd.com/doc/40168353/Marrin-Intelligence-. The first bias is anchoring, as described in the theory section in, this article. for public examination in Sverigesalen, at the Swedish Defence University. Is the Swedish case representative of other countries? The causal, effect of the institution on assessments is difficult to assert based on the conducted, research. This is also seen in Bimfort’s own definition, which only incorporates intelligence, about foreign countries. Rational choice theory is based on the assumption that individ-, uals know what is in their self-interest and act accordingly. However, generalizations are probably only possible regarding generic findings, and. 2013. These publications are evidence that, the field of intelligence studies, although still young and a protoscience, has started, to accumulate a significant amount of research conducive to producing high quality, publications. makers—intelligence as a knowledge product or an activity producing this product. ables, and to establish counterfactual conditionals based on the dependent variable. Clausewitz, Carl. for a full printed version of this dissertation! els in the context of military intelligence. To understand this better, we can re-, analyze the findings from the first two articles with the help of the framework. I also want to thank my other supervisors: Professor Gunnar Hult and Professor, Martin Norsell for always believing in me and for their unwavering support. This is especially relevant for military intelligence as the assessments are con-. 2010. theory and method throughout the research (Hesse-Biber and Johnson 2015, xvi). , edited by Loch K. Johnson. to current goals (relevance principle). doi:10.1080/0955757042000298188. Ben-Israel suggested that intelligence estimation uses a. conceptual framework in the same way science uses a theory (1989, 661). With the help of the, information gathered, the initial question is answered. In this thesis, intelligence analysis has an important role as the overarching research, problem regards intelligence analysis. Consequently, a formal rule is, created regarding how the mental framework should be constructed, restricting the, jury members and influencing their assessments. The different examples from the doctrine in Figure 5 are illustrated in, different ways but the concepts are quite similar. It can be seen as the basis of knowledge production. View Military Intelligence Research Papers on Academia.edu for free. Since the aim is to better understand intelligence analysis, there is, a need to understand what affects the analysis. 'Projecting' human characteristics onto a computer might be considered a cognitive bias, but in this task, the strategy seemed to yield good initial results. Davis discusses institutional initia-. "If you have an intressted in the subject I recomend the artikel Institutional influence on assessments: the institutional analysis and development framework applied to military intelligence where the theory is more developed." Although these factors lie outside the, institution’s and its members’ control, their effect can be mitigated if they are, known and understood. ‘The Advocacy Coalition, Framework: Innovations and Clarifications’. All figure content in this area was uploaded by Martin Bang, All content in this area was uploaded by Martin Bang on Dec 05, 2017, Doctoral dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Military Sciences. ———. other parts (Koestler 1970). It seems that intelligence is not consistently defined in the literature, as many articles within the field begin with quite extensive discussions about basic definitions. In order to identify, how this influence is asserted, a causal mechanism between the two variables needs, to be established. 2008. The work itself appeared to be ad hoc. was part of the Allied forces Arctic convoys during World War II, which supplied the Soviet Union with much needed goods in its battles, with Hitler’s Germany. Nevertheless, Agrell´s criticism remains, but focuses more on how the framework is, With the exception of Article III, the articles of this thesis describe the intelligence, cycle when it is referred to as a framework aiming to describe the intelligence pro-, cess. The second step used these findings, for theory development and testing in order to identify the causal relationship be-, tween the independent variable (i.e., institution) and the dependent variable (i.e., the, assessments produced as an outcome of the intelligence analysis). Intelligence analysis is primarily a cognitive process, an activity which is, mainly performed inside an analyst’s own head. In, other words, another scholar studying the same material may have been able to. This article connects the, effect with the rules-in-use within a military intelligence institution, particularly the, rules-in-use that dictate that an analyst takes his or her starting point from recently, conducted assessments of the specific area or threat. Therefore, the aim of this section is not, to define the intelligence epistemology or the most central aspects, but rather to. There is, not a total consensus among case study methodologists on this question. 2016. Theories of the Policy Process, Second Edition, Silent Warfare: Understanding the World of Intelligence, Försvarsmaktens Gemensamma Riskhanteringsmodell. The IAD framework is part of the rational choice institutionalism; this, however, does not mean that there is a need to accept the premises of the rational human if, the framework is utilized. These questions are connected to the, overarching research question: How do military intelligence institutions influence, analysis. The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis has been required reading for intelligence officers studying the art and science of intelligence analysis for decades. to read and comment my drafts and papers. doi:10.1080/02684527.2014.952932. ‘Eight Challenges for Interview Re-, ———. Ostrom defines an action situation as when at least two people jointly produce an, outcome from a set of potential actions (Ostrom 2005, 32). The holon action situation is the central component within the IAD framework. , struction based on the concept, writes that they are entities of self-regulating open hier-, archic.... ‘ improving intelligence analysis, threat assessments, is a core element of the internal.... A framework military intelligence pdf seen as the written replies was conducted in an environment of high uncertainty the time to it... To incorporate a scientific approach where the latter is a more detailed review of intelligence analysis: old new! 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